Executive Summary
The U.S. government designates a “critical mineral” as a commodity that meets three key criteria:¹
- It is essential to economic or national security.
- Its supply chain is vulnerable to disruption.
- It serves an essential function in manufacturing a product, and its absence would have significant consequences.
Based on this definition, the United States faces acute supply chain vulnerabilities for numerous essential metals. A new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) economic risk model reveals a specific cohort of 14 metals, led by rhodium and niobium, poses an immediate and disproportionate threat. A supply disruption in any one of these could inflict a probability-weighted impact on the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from over $1 billion to as much as $64 billion.²˒³
These vulnerabilities are rooted in geopolitical realities. The nation has a strategic dependency on a few countries. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) dominates the processing of rare earth elements (REEs), gallium, and germanium.⁴˒⁵ A precarious duopoly of South Africa and Russia controls platinum group metals (PGMs).⁶˒⁷ This concentration gives strategic competitors significant geoeconomic leverage. These nations have weaponized this leverage through export controls and other coercive trade measures.⁸˒⁹˒¹⁰˒¹¹
Key Takeaways:
- Quantifiable Economic Risk: The 2025 USGS methodology shifts risk assessment from static metrics to a dynamic economic impact model. This provides a clear, monetary basis for prioritizing policy interventions.³˒¹²˒¹³
- High-Threat Metals: A small group of 14 metals presents the most severe economic threat. This group includes rhodium, niobium, and several REEs, with potential GDP impacts in the billions of dollars.²˒³
- Geopolitical Chokepoints: The most significant vulnerability lies not in mining but in midstream processing. China holds a near-monopoly in this area, creating strategic chokepoints.⁴˒¹⁴
- Sector-Wide Paralysis: A mineral shortage could paralyze key sectors. These include the defense industrial base (e.g., F-35 fighter jet), the automotive industry, semiconductor manufacturing, and the clean energy transition.²˒¹²˒¹⁵˒¹⁶
- Urgent Need for a National Strategy: Mitigating these risks requires a multi-domain strategy. This strategy must focus on onshoring processing, scaling up recycling, fostering material substitution, and strengthening diplomatic partnerships like the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP).
The security of these metallic elements is no longer a niche industrial concern. It is a central pillar of U.S. economic resilience and national security in the 21st century.
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