Executive Summary
The substantial rise in U.S. coffee prices since 2021 is not the result of a single cause. Instead, it is a “perfect storm” of compounding global disruptions.
This report deconstructs the complex factors behind the price surge. It traces the coffee bean’s journey from international farms to retail shelves across the United States. The analysis reveals a multi-layered crisis.
The crisis began with a fundamental supply shock from unprecedented climate events in Brazil and Vietnam. These events drove commodity prices to a ten-year high. Persistent global inflation and logistical bottlenecks then exacerbated the problem, increasing costs at every stage.
The situation was acutely aggravated in 2025 by a new U.S. tariff regime. This included a punitive 50% tariff on Brazil, which forced a chaotic and costly realignment of the entire coffee trade.
Finally, the report demonstrates how the industry’s value chain amplified these initial cost increases. Its multiple percentage-based markups led to the near-doubling of prices that consumers experienced.
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