Executive Summary
This report critically examines the core tension between the public narrative of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and the significant, understated risks of its global expansion. Our investigation finds no evidence of fraud. However, it identifies a pattern of strategic misrepresentation. This pattern downplays the complexities and vulnerabilities of its U.S. expansion.
The primary risk to TSMC and its stakeholders is not deception. It is a high probability of execution failure. This means an inability to meet ambitious timelines and cost targets in a new, challenging environment.
Key findings include:
- A critical dependency on Taiwan for advanced chip packaging, which undermines the U.S. goal of supply chain resilience.¹
- High execution risk in Arizona, driven by soaring costs and documented operational delays that conflict with optimistic official timelines.²
This report concludes with actionable recommendations. It urges policymakers and investors to shift focus from mere wafer fabrication to securing the entire supply chain. It also recommends implementing rigorous milestone verification for subsidies and applying a significant risk premium to account for the substantial challenges ahead.
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