Executive Summary
The electorate is characterized by a profound and sustained dissatisfaction with the dominant two-party system. Polling data indicates a majority of voters desire a viable third major party. This sentiment includes a historically high percentage of Republicans. A consistent and overwhelming majority of independents also favor a third party.
This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the 100 individuals most likely to emerge as third-party or independent presidential candidates in 2028. The analysis is structured into four tiers. These tiers reflect a candidate’s potential for national impact, from genuine disruptors to perennial activists and declared long-shots.
The most significant threat to the duopoly in 2028 is unlikely to come from established third parties. Instead, it is poised to emerge from high-profile, well-funded independents. These individuals can leverage personal brands and specific political missions to build cross-partisan coalitions.
Liz Cheney stands out as the most probable high-impact candidate. She has a well-funded political action committee. Her singular focus is opposing the MAGA (Make America Great Again, a faction associated with Donald Trump) wing of the Republican party. This focus positions her as a strategic spoiler in key swing states.
Centrists like former Senator Joe Manchin represent another potential independent candidacy. Celebrity figures such as Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Mark Cuban are also possibilities. However, their paths to the ballot depend on organizational support. They must also be willing to enter the divisive political fray.
Established third parties, primarily the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, will continue to field candidates. However, they remain constrained by internal ideological battles and a limited electoral ceiling. The Libertarian nomination will likely be a contest between its pragmatist wing, represented by 2024 nominee Chase Oliver, and the more radical Mises Caucus. The Green Party will likely nominate either its multi-time standard-bearer, Jill Stein, or her 2024 running mate, Butch Ware. Progressive activist Cornel West has also declared his intention to run again under the banner of his newly formed Justice for All Party.
This report concludes by identifying key indicators to monitor over the next 18 months. These include the ballot access progress of emerging parties like the Forward Party and the fundraising success of key independent PACs. They also include the strategic decisions of centrist organizations such as No Labels and the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections. Ultimately, the composition of the major party primary fields will define the size and nature of the opportunity for any alternative candidate in 2028.
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