Doomscroll News

A Forecast of the Top 100 Independent and Third-Party Contenders for 2028

Written by

David Gross

in

Executive Summary

The electorate is characterized by a profound and sustained dissatisfaction with the dominant two-party system. Polling data indicates a majority of voters desire a viable third major party. This sentiment includes a historically high percentage of Republicans. A consistent and overwhelming majority of independents also favor a third party.

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the 100 individuals most likely to emerge as third-party or independent presidential candidates in 2028. The analysis is structured into four tiers. These tiers reflect a candidate’s potential for national impact, from genuine disruptors to perennial activists and declared long-shots.

The most significant threat to the duopoly in 2028 is unlikely to come from established third parties. Instead, it is poised to emerge from high-profile, well-funded independents. These individuals can leverage personal brands and specific political missions to build cross-partisan coalitions.

Liz Cheney stands out as the most probable high-impact candidate. She has a well-funded political action committee. Her singular focus is opposing the MAGA (Make America Great Again, a faction associated with Donald Trump) wing of the Republican party. This focus positions her as a strategic spoiler in key swing states.

Centrists like former Senator Joe Manchin represent another potential independent candidacy. Celebrity figures such as Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Mark Cuban are also possibilities. However, their paths to the ballot depend on organizational support. They must also be willing to enter the divisive political fray.

Established third parties, primarily the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, will continue to field candidates. However, they remain constrained by internal ideological battles and a limited electoral ceiling. The Libertarian nomination will likely be a contest between its pragmatist wing, represented by 2024 nominee Chase Oliver, and the more radical Mises Caucus. The Green Party will likely nominate either its multi-time standard-bearer, Jill Stein, or her 2024 running mate, Butch Ware. Progressive activist Cornel West has also declared his intention to run again under the banner of his newly formed Justice for All Party.

This report concludes by identifying key indicators to monitor over the next 18 months. These include the ballot access progress of emerging parties like the Forward Party and the fundraising success of key independent PACs. They also include the strategic decisions of centrist organizations such as No Labels and the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections. Ultimately, the composition of the major party primary fields will define the size and nature of the opportunity for any alternative candidate in 2028.

Introduction: The Post-2024 Landscape and the Search for an Alternative

A palpable and growing demand for alternatives to the established two-party system defines the political environment in October 2025. The 2024 presidential election featured prominent alternative candidates. These included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (prior to his withdrawal), Cornel West, and Jill Stein. This election did not satiate the demand for alternatives. Instead, it intensified the national conversation. The discussion focused on the structural limitations and potential impact of non-traditional campaigns.¹ ²

The Climate of Discontent

Recent polling data underscores the depth of this sentiment. According to a Gallup poll, support for creating a third major political party has again surpassed 60%. This threshold of public desire has been reached only twice before, in 2017 and 2021.³ This sustained interest suggests a fundamental, rather than cyclical, frustration with the current political duopoly.

Critically, a significant shift among Republican voters is driving the latest surge in this sentiment. In the past year, the share of Republicans favoring a third party has jumped from 45% to 58%. This indicates a substantial portion of the conservative electorate feels unrepresented by its party’s current trajectory. Meanwhile, political independents, a growing segment of the electorate, remain the group most consistently and overwhelmingly in favor of a third-party option.³ This confluence of dissatisfaction creates a uniquely fertile environment for a credible alternative candidate to emerge.

Historical Context and the “Spoiler” Effect

History will shape the view of any third-party or independent candidacy in 2028. This is particularly true regarding the “spoiler” effect. This effect occurs when an alternative candidate is perceived as drawing enough votes from a major party nominee to alter an election’s outcome.

The 2024 election cycle reignited this debate. Jill Stein’s campaign, in particular, drew criticism from Democrats for drawing votes in swing states.² This dynamic is not new. It echoes the discourse surrounding Ralph Nader’s Green Party run in 2000, which many Democrats believe cost Al Gore the presidency. It also brings to mind Jill Stein’s 2016 campaign, which garnered more votes in key swing states than Donald Trump’s margin of victory.² Conversely, the 2020 election saw Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen win more votes than Trump’s margin of defeat in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. This highlights that the spoiler effect is not exclusive to one side.²

The shadow of Ross Perot’s 1996 campaign also looms large. He secured 8.4% of the popular vote. His run continues to serve as a benchmark for a financially independent, populist-centrist campaign that can achieve a significant national following.² The challenge for any 2028 contender will be to navigate the inevitable “spoiler” accusations while building a coalition broad enough to be seen as a viable alternative, not just a protest vote.

Structural Hurdles to Viability

Despite the clear public appetite for a third option, the structural barriers to a successful independent or third-party presidency remain immense. The American electoral system is fundamentally designed to support a two-party duopoly. These hurdles include:

  • Ballot Access: Gaining ballot access in all 50 states is a legally complex, expensive, and time-consuming process. It requires a significant organizational footprint on the ground months, if not years, in advance. As of January 2025, only the Democratic and Republican parties have automatic access in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The Libertarian Party is a distant third with recognition in 38 states, followed by the Green Party (23 states) and the Constitution Party (12 states).⁴
  • Fundraising: Competing with the billion-dollar fundraising machines of the two major parties is a monumental task. A viable campaign requires either immense personal wealth or the ability to build a massive grassroots donor network capable of sustaining a national operation.
  • Media Coverage and Debate Inclusion: Alternative candidates struggle to command the media attention afforded to major party nominees. Furthermore, the Commission on Presidential Debates’ stringent polling requirements (typically 15% in national polls) create a catch-22. A candidate needs debate exposure to reach 15%, but needs to be at 15% to get on the debate stage.

These structural realities serve as the primary filter for assessing the candidates in this report. A candidate’s viability is not merely a function of their message or personal appeal. It is a function of their capacity to overcome these systemic obstacles. This report first provides an in-depth analysis of the most impactful potential candidates, organized by tiers of influence, before presenting a broader list to round out the forecast of 100 individuals.

Part I: Tier 1 – The Potential Disruptors

This tier comprises individuals who possess a unique combination of national name recognition, potential access to significant financial resources, and a political identity that could galvanize a cross-partisan coalition. They include anti-establishment crusaders, well-funded centrists, and celebrity outsiders. Each represents a different potential vector for disrupting the two-party system. These are the candidates with the highest potential to mount a high-impact campaign that could fundamentally alter the 2028 presidential election.

1. Liz Cheney (Independent Conservative): The Constitutionalist Crusade

Former Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney represents the most plausible high-impact independent candidacy for 2028. Her potential run is not a conventional campaign for office. It is a mission-driven effort to build a broad, bipartisan coalition with the singular goal of preventing a Trump-aligned Republican from winning the presidency.

Political Positioning and Stated Intent:

Cheney’s political trajectory has transformed her from a mainstream conservative leader into the most prominent anti-Trump Republican in the country. Her role as Vice Chair of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack solidified this identity. It made her a pariah within the current Republican Party but a figure of significant interest to independents, moderate Democrats, and “Never Trump” conservatives.⁵ ⁶ Media speculation has consistently identified her as a potential 2028 contender.⁵ ⁸

Cheney has been increasingly open about her ambitions. After her primary defeat in 2022, she stated that a presidential run is “something that I’m thinking about.” She has since affirmed she will do “whatever it takes to ensure Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office”.⁶ ⁷ More recently, she revealed she is actively considering a run on a third-party or bipartisan “unity” ticket. She frames the effort as a necessary step to safeguard American democracy and the Constitution.⁸

Financial and Organizational Infrastructure:

To support this mission, Cheney has already laid the groundwork for a national campaign. She converted her political operation into a political action committee named “The Great Task”.⁷ ⁹ The PAC’s name is a direct invocation of Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address. This explicitly frames her political project as a historic mission to save the republic and is designed to appeal to a sense of patriotic duty that transcends party loyalty.

The PAC has demonstrated formidable fundraising prowess. A successor entity, “Our Great Task,” had raised over $3 million by mid-2024, with $2.8 million in cash on hand. This signals strong donor interest.¹⁰ Significantly, the PAC utilizes ActBlue, the primary online fundraising platform for the Democratic Party. This confirms a strategy of actively courting cross-party and independent donors who share her opposition to Trumpism.¹⁰

Strategic Outlook:

The primary goal of a Cheney campaign would not be to win the presidency. It would be to act as a strategic spoiler to prevent a specific outcome for a major party. Her campaign would function as a vehicle to deny victory to a Trump-aligned Republican nominee. The objective would be to create a permission structure for traditional conservatives and independents in key swing states to vote for someone other than the Republican nominee. These states include Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Her success would not be measured in electoral votes. It would be measured by her ability to siphon a critical percentage of the center-right vote in a close election, thereby delivering the presidency to the Democratic candidate. Her candidacy is therefore highly likely if the 2028 Republican nominee is perceived as a continuation of the Trump movement.

2. Joe Manchin (Independent Centrist): The “Commonsense Majority” Gambit

Joe Manchin has retired from the U.S. Senate and formally registered as an independent. This positions him uniquely to be the standard-bearer for a well-funded centrist movement in 2028. His entire political brand is built on moderation and bipartisanship. This makes him the archetypal candidate for an organization like No Labels that seeks to challenge the “extremes” of both parties.

Political Evolution and Positioning:

Manchin’s career in the Senate was defined by his role as a pivotal swing vote. He frequently clashed with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and leveraged his position to force compromise.¹¹ His decision to leave the Democratic Party in May 2024 was the culmination of this trajectory. It freed him from all partisan obligations and formally branded him as an independent.¹¹ ¹⁴

Manchin has openly explored a presidential bid. In the run-up to the 2024 election, he launched a “listening tour.” He also made numerous appearances with the centrist group No Labels, explicitly teasing a potential third-party run before ultimately declining.¹⁵ ¹⁶ While he stated he would not be involved in a presidential run for 2024, his actions served as a trial balloon. They built his national profile and tested the waters for a future campaign.¹⁷ ¹⁸ His rhetoric consistently focuses on representing the “sensible moderates” in the “middle of this country,” a message that aligns perfectly with the stated mission of centrist organizations.¹⁵ ¹⁸

Organizational Dependence:

Unlike Cheney, Manchin does not possess a personal political organization or a singular, galvanizing mission. His viability as a candidate is therefore almost entirely dependent on the infrastructure and financial backing of a group like No Labels. The No Labels effort to field a “unity ticket” in 2024 ultimately failed because it was unable to attract a high-profile, credible candidate. Figures like Manchin, Larry Hogan, and Nikki Haley all declined.¹⁹ ²⁰

Strategic Outlook:

A Manchin 2028 candidacy represents a symbiotic relationship. Manchin requires the ballot access and funding that an organization like No Labels has worked to secure. The organization, in turn, requires a candidate with the national stature and centrist credentials that Manchin embodies. His likelihood of running is a direct function of No Labels’ ability to regroup after its 2024 collapse (due to its inability to attract a viable, high-profile candidate). If the organization can demonstrate a clear path forward, Manchin is the most logical and likely candidate to lead their ticket. His run would directly test the theory that a “commonsense majority” is waiting for a champion.

3. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (Independent Celebrity): The Populist Unifier

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson represents the ultimate political outsider. He is a globally recognized celebrity whose immense popularity and carefully curated apolitical brand could, in theory, be translated into a formidable independent presidential campaign. His potential candidacy tests whether personal charisma and mass media appeal can overcome a complete lack of political experience and infrastructure.

Public Interest and Stated Intent:

For years, Johnson has been a subject of serious political speculation. A 2021 poll found that 46% of Americans would be open to supporting his presidential run. As of late 2025, he continues to be a figure of interest in political betting markets.²¹ ²² Johnson himself has fueled this speculation. He claims that representatives from multiple political parties approached him in late 2022 to gauge his interest in running.²¹ ²³

His public stance has been carefully calibrated. In 2022, he stated that a presidential bid was “off the table” so he could prioritize his family. However, his position softened in a September 2025 interview to a more ambiguous “we’ll see,” reopening the door to a future run.²² He has consistently maintained that he would consider running “if that’s what the people wanted.” This frames a potential campaign as a response to a public draft rather than personal ambition.²¹ ²⁴

Political Identity and Strategy:

Johnson identifies as a “political independent & centrist”.²¹ After endorsing Joe Biden in 2020, he later expressed regret, stating that his endorsement caused “an incredible amount of division.” He has since vowed to make no future endorsements, preferring to keep his politics private.²⁵ This pivot is a strategic move to reinforce his brand as a unifier who stands above the partisan fray. This would be the central theme of any potential campaign.

Strategic Outlook:

The chasm between Johnson’s current status as a beloved entertainer and the requirements of a credible presidential campaign is immense. A serious run would require several things:

  • The rapid creation of a sophisticated national campaign organization.
  • The development of a substantive policy platform beyond vague platitudes of unity.
  • A willingness to engage in the inherently divisive nature of political combat.

Should he run, his “populist unifier” brand suggests a potential platform focused on broad themes like infrastructure renewal, support for veterans, and national service, while avoiding more polarizing social issues. His “we’ll see” posture allows him to maintain public interest without making a firm commitment. While a run remains moderately unlikely, his universal name recognition and personal wealth mean that if he were to commit, he would instantly become the most high-profile independent candidate in the field. This would force the political establishment to take his candidacy seriously.

4. Mark Cuban (Independent Technocrat): The Pragmatic Problem-Solver

Billionaire entrepreneur and media personality Mark Cuban has long been a fixture in discussions about potential independent presidential candidates. He embodies the archetype of the pragmatic, data-driven technocrat. He views the nation’s challenges as business problems to be solved, free from the constraints of political ideology.

Perennial Speculation and Political Identity:

Political observers consistently mention Cuban as a plausible independent candidate. This is largely due to his outspoken nature, business acumen, and celebrity status from shows like Shark Tank.²⁵ He identifies as politically independent and has supported candidates from both parties, most recently campaigning for Kamala Harris in 2024.²⁶ ²⁷ His policy-oriented ventures, such as the Cost Plus Drug Company, are often interpreted as groundwork for a political platform focused on market-based solutions to public problems.²⁷ ²⁸

Stated Intent and a Critical Caveat:

Despite constant speculation, Cuban has consistently stated that he will not run for president. He cites the intense personal toll such a campaign would take on his family.²⁹ However, he has attached a single, significant caveat to this refusal. He would consider running if Donald Trump attempted to seek a third term. He has described such a scenario as a “true threat” that would change the calculus entirely.²⁹ ³⁰

Strategic Outlook:

Cuban’s conditional candidacy is best understood as a political signaling device, not a literal campaign plan. As a former president, Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term under the 22nd Amendment. Cuban’s condition is therefore predicated on an extra-constitutional, highly improbable event. This posture allows him to answer the perennial “will you run?” question with a principled-sounding “no, but…” It casts him as a reluctant patriot ready to serve only in a moment of extreme national crisis. This keeps his name relevant in political discourse without incurring the costs and scrutiny of an actual campaign. While he is highly unlikely to run under normal circumstances, his name will persist in media speculation as a placeholder for the “business-minded independent” archetype.

Part II: Tier 2 – The Standard-Bearers of Established Parties

This tier focuses on the most likely presidential nominees from the handful of third parties that possess a national footprint, ballot access in multiple states, and a history of contesting presidential elections. While these parties have a limited electoral ceiling, their nominees play a significant role in shaping the national debate. They can also have a measurable impact on election outcomes, particularly in close races.

5. The Libertarian Party Nominee: A Battle for the Soul of the Party

The Libertarian Party (LP) is, by a significant margin, the most established third party in the United States. It possesses an organizational infrastructure unmatched by any other alternative party, with ballot access in 47 states in 2024 and a registered membership of over 700,000.⁴ ⁵⁰ However, the party is in the midst of a profound internal struggle. The conflict is between its pragmatic, activist wing, which seeks to broaden the party’s appeal, and the more ideologically rigid Mises Caucus, which advocates for a hardline, paleo-libertarian platform. The 2028 nomination will serve as a referendum on the party’s future direction.

Potential Candidates:

  • Chase Oliver: As the party’s 2024 presidential nominee, Oliver is the presumptive frontrunner for 2028. His nomination was a victory for the party’s activist wing. It successfully fended off both outside overtures from figures like Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and an internal challenge from the Mises Caucus-backed candidate, Michael Rectenwald.³¹ ³³ He gained significant national exposure during the 2022 Georgia Senate race, where he forced a runoff, and was subsequently hailed by Rolling Stone as the “most influential Libertarian”.³⁵ A second run would allow him to build on this name recognition.
  • A Mises Caucus Candidate: The Mises Caucus executed a “takeover” of the party’s national committee in 2022. They installed Angela McArdle as chair and shifted the party’s tone in a more right-wing, populist direction.³⁶ Although McArdle resigned in early 2025 and her preferred successor was narrowly defeated, the caucus remains the most powerful and organized faction within the party.³⁶ ³⁷ They are certain to field a strong candidate for the 2028 nomination, likely Michael Heise or popular podcast host and comedian Dave Smith.³⁶
  • Justin Amash: The former Republican-turned-Libertarian congressman was once seen as the party’s best hope for a nationally recognized standard-bearer. He formed an exploratory committee for a 2020 presidential run before withdrawing.³⁸ ³⁹ ⁴⁰ However, Amash’s political journey took another turn in 2024. He rejoined the Republican Party to mount an unsuccessful primary campaign for the U.S. Senate in Michigan.³⁸ ⁴¹ This return to the GOP makes a 2028 Libertarian run highly improbable, though not impossible.

Strategic Outlook:

The Libertarian Party’s choice in 2028 is a strategic crossroads. Nominating Chase Oliver again would represent a continuation of the strategy to appeal to a broader electorate. This would aim to capture the 1-3% of the popular vote that candidates like Gary Johnson achieved.² ⁴²

Conversely, the nomination of a Mises Caucus candidate would signal a turn inward, prioritizing “ideological purity.” This reflects a paleo-libertarian stance that often includes more right-wing populist rhetoric on cultural issues and a hardline anti-war foreign policy, sometimes at the expense of broader electoral appeal. The outcome of the nomination battle will reveal whether the LP’s primary goal is to win converts or to preach to the choir.

6. The Green Party Nominee: The Perennial Voice vs. New Blood

The Green Party of the United States (GPUS) is the nation’s fourth-largest political party by voter registration. It is also its most prominent voice for eco-socialist and progressive politics.⁴⁴ ⁴⁶ ⁵⁰ As the party looks toward 2028, it faces a familiar question: whether to turn again to its most recognizable figure or to elevate a new generation of leadership.

Potential Candidates:

  • Jill Stein: A physician and activist, Stein is synonymous with the modern Green Party. She served as its presidential nominee in 2012, 2016, and 2024.¹ ² ⁴³ ⁴⁵ Her name recognition is an undeniable asset within the third-party space. However, it is controversial in mainstream politics due to “spoiler” accusations—specifically the concern that her candidacy draws enough votes away from Democratic candidates in key swing states to alter election outcomes. She remains an active proponent of the party’s platform, which includes a Green New Deal, Medicare for All, and a non-interventionist foreign policy.⁴⁵ ⁴⁶ Given her history of repeated runs, a fifth presidential campaign in 2028 is a distinct possibility.
  • Butch Ware: Stein’s 2024 vice-presidential running mate, Ware is a history professor and author. He brings a fresh face and academic credibility to the ticket.⁴⁷ Crucially, Ware announced in February 2025 that he would be a candidate for Governor of California in the 2026 election.⁴⁷ This move signals higher political ambitions. It also provides him with a powerful platform to build name recognition and executive credentials. A credible performance in the California gubernatorial race would make him a strong contender to succeed Stein in 2028.
  • Howie Hawkins: A co-founder of the Green Party and its 2020 presidential nominee, Hawkins is an elder statesman of the American left.⁴⁷ As an avowed libertarian socialist, he represents the party’s ideological core.⁴⁷ While his 2020 vote total was modest (approximately 400,000 votes, or 0.3%), he could mount another campaign to ensure the party remains anchored to its foundational principles.²

Strategic Outlook:

The Green Party’s potential impact in 2028 is heavily dependent on the identity of the Democratic Party’s nominee. The party’s platform is designed to appeal to voters to the left of the mainstream Democratic Party.⁴⁷ ⁴⁸ ⁶⁸ If the Democrats nominate a centrist figure, it creates a significant opening for the Greens. They could argue that the Democratic Party has abandoned progressive principles. In this scenario, a Green candidate could peel off a meaningful percentage of left-wing voters. However, if the Democrats nominate a prominent progressive, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the rationale for a Green vote would diminish for many. That candidate would likely absorb the energy and support of the progressive movement.

7. Cornel West (Justice for All Party): The Independent Progressive Intellectual

Dr. Cornel West, the renowned philosopher and public intellectual, has firmly established his intention to remain a force in presidential politics. After a tumultuous 2024 campaign that saw him run under multiple banners, West has signaled his commitment to a 2028 run.⁴⁹

Stated Intent and Party Building:

West’s intention to run in 2028 is not speculative. A September 2025 report confirmed that West plans to run again. This fact emerged during a lawsuit he filed challenging Pennsylvania’s ballot access laws from the 2024 cycle.⁵⁰ This legal challenge indicates a forward-looking strategy aimed at clearing the procedural hurdles that hampered his previous campaign.

His political vehicle for this run will be the Justice for All Party, which he established in January 2024.⁴⁹ ⁵¹ His 2028 effort will be a dual-purpose campaign: to advocate for his platform and to build this new party’s organizational infrastructure. His platform is unapologetically radical. It calls for the dismantling of the American “empire,” the abolition of poverty, reparations, and an end to capitalism. This positions him well to the left of even the most progressive wing of the Democratic Party.⁵³

Strategic Outlook:

The primary challenge for West’s 2028 campaign will be logistical. His 2024 bid was characterized by organizational instability. This included multiple changes in party affiliation and significant failures to achieve ballot access in key states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.⁴⁹ ⁵² ⁵³

While his intellectual stature and moral authority grant him a unique platform, his success in 2028 will depend entirely on his campaign’s ability to translate that platform into a functional, on-the-ground political operation. Building a new party, navigating 50 different sets of ballot access laws, and raising the necessary funds are monumental tasks. Therefore, while West is highly likely to be a candidate, his potential impact will be severely limited unless his new party can demonstrate a level of organizational competence that was absent in his first presidential run.

Part III: Tier 3 – The Outsiders and Defectors-in-Waiting

This tier categorizes candidates whose potential runs are contingent on specific political events or are part of broader, long-term movement-building efforts. This group represents the “defectors-in-waiting” and long-game strategists who could enter the fray if the political landscape shifts in their favor.

8. Andrew Yang (Forward Party): The Movement Builder

Andrew Yang, the entrepreneur who rose to national prominence during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, has pivoted from being a candidate to being a party founder. His primary focus for 2028 is not on his own candidacy. Instead, it is on the ambitious project of establishing the Forward Party as a durable, nationwide political force.

Strategy and Stated Goals:

The Forward Party’s mission is not to win the presidency in 2028. As articulated by Yang and its leadership, the goal is to fundamentally reform the American political system from the ground up.⁵⁴ Their stated goals are to achieve ballot access in all 50 states by 2025 and gain official federal recognition as a political party by 2028.⁵⁴

These “process-oriented values” refer to the party’s focus on fixing the political system itself. They champion electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting and open primaries, rather than adopting a rigid policy platform. Yang has been explicit that the party is not interested in running a presidential candidate in the near term, focusing instead on electing officials at the state and local levels.⁵⁴

Actions and Progress:

The party’s actions align with this long-term strategy. In 2025, the Forward Party is actively endorsing a slate of candidates for local and state offices. This includes Democrats, Republicans, and independents who align with their reform-focused values.⁵⁶ ⁵⁷ Organizationally, they are making incremental progress. They are pursuing ballot access petitions in states like North Carolina and merging with existing centrist parties in Utah and Minnesota to build their state-level infrastructure.⁵⁴ ⁵⁸ ⁵⁹ The party is already holding planning meetings for a 2026 convention, further indicating a focus on long-term party-building.⁶⁰ ⁸⁵

Strategic Outlook:

The Forward Party is attempting to build a “farm team” of elected officials. They want to change the rules of the game to make third parties more viable in the future. A 2028 presidential run would be counterproductive to this foundational strategy. It would drain immense resources from their state-level efforts and expose them to the “spoiler” attacks they seek to render obsolete. Therefore, Yang’s role in 2028 will almost certainly be that of a chief strategist, fundraiser, and public face for the movement, not a candidate on the ballot.

9. The Major Party Defector

One of the most potent sources of a high-impact independent candidacy is a prominent figure from one of the two major parties. After losing a primary, such a figure might decide to continue their campaign outside the party structure. This type of candidate brings a pre-existing national profile, a fundraising network, and a dedicated base of supporters.

The likelihood of any specific individual taking this path is low. However, the probability of someone emerging from this category is moderate. The catalyst for such a defection would almost certainly be a polarizing primary outcome, where a faction of the party feels entirely unrepresented by the nominee.

Potential Scenarios and Candidates:

  • Rand Paul (Libertarian-Leaning Republican): The Kentucky senator has a unique political lineage; his father, Ron Paul, ran for president as both a Republican and a Libertarian.⁵ ⁶¹ Rand Paul himself has expressed interest in a 2028 Republican primary run. He has also maintained a distinct ideological brand, often clashing with the Trump wing of the party on foreign policy and civil liberties.⁵ If he were to lose the GOP nomination to a more Trump-aligned candidate, his principles and support base would make him a natural fit for a third-party run from the Republican Party.
  • Tulsi Gabbard (Populist Independent): Gabbard’s political identity is exceptionally fluid. She has transitioned from Democrat to Independent to Republican, now serving in a Republican administration as Director of National Intelligence.⁵ While she has said she would “never rule out” a 2028 run, her path within the GOP primary could be challenging. Her anti-interventionist foreign policy and populist appeal could form the basis of a compelling independent campaign if she defects from the Republican Party after being marginalized in its contest.
  • Ro Khanna (Progressive Democrat): As a former co-chair of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign, Representative Ro Khanna is a leading voice in the progressive movement and has expressed interest in a 2028 presidential bid.⁵ If the Democratic party ultimately nominates a centrist, Khanna could face immense pressure from his progressive base to continue his campaign as an independent. He could defect from the Democratic Party, mirroring the path some hoped Bernie Sanders would take in 2016.

10. Other Notables

This category includes figures who have previously run for office as independents or who are frequently speculated about. However, they face a more challenging or less defined path to a 2028 campaign.

  • Evan McMullin (Anti-Trump Conservative): McMullin, known for his 2016 independent presidential campaign, has established a national profile as a principled “Never Trump” conservative.⁶⁰ ⁶¹ He reinforced this brand with his 2022 independent run for the U.S. Senate in Utah, where he secured the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.⁶² He has a clear platform and an established network of supporters. Another presidential run in 2028 is plausible, particularly if he sees an opening to consolidate anti-Trump conservatives in the Intermountain West.⁶³ ⁶⁴
  • Kyrsten Sinema (Centrist Independent): After a high-profile Senate term defined by her centrism, Sinema chose not to seek reelection in 2024. She has since joined a law and lobbying firm and the advisory council for Coinbase.¹¹ ⁶⁴ ⁶⁵ While her career in electoral politics appears to be over, her unique political brand makes her a perennial name in discussions about a potential “unity” ticket. A return to politics is a remote possibility, likely only as a vice-presidential candidate on a ticket led by another prominent centrist.⁶⁶ ⁶⁷
  • Tucker Carlson (Populist Nationalist): While prediction markets give him low odds, the influential political commentator is often speculated about as a potential presidential candidate due to his large following and powerful media platform.²⁵ ⁶⁸ His low odds are likely because his natural path to power lies within the Republican Party’s primary system. An independent run would only become a likely scenario if he were to break with the GOP nominee. Still, his ability to command media attention makes him a figure to watch.⁶⁹

Part IV: Tier 4 – The Broader Field

To provide a truly exhaustive forecast, this final section identifies the remaining candidates who comprise the field of 100. This includes established figures within the ecosystem of third parties who, while unlikely to win, form the leadership and activist base of their movements. It also includes a comprehensive list of individuals who have already taken the formal step of filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) for a 2028 presidential run.

A. Established Third-Party Figures (Candidates 11-40)

This group consists of past presidential and vice-presidential nominees, current party officers, and notable activists from the most organized third parties. They are highly likely to be involved in the 2028 race, either as candidates themselves or as key players in their party’s nomination process.

Libertarian Party:

11. Jo Jorgensen: 2020 Presidential Nominee⁴² ⁶¹

12. Spike Cohen: 2020 Vice-Presidential Nominee³⁷ ⁷⁰

13. Gary Johnson: 2012 and 2016 Presidential Nominee⁴² ⁶¹

14. Bill Weld: 2016 Vice-Presidential Nominee⁷¹

15. Michael Rectenwald: 2024 Presidential Primary Candidate³³

16. Jacob Hornberger: 2020 and 2024 Presidential Primary Candidate³³ ³⁷

17. Dave Smith: Comedian and Mises Caucus thought leader³⁶

18. Angela McArdle: Former Libertarian National Committee Chair (Mises Caucus)³⁶ ⁷⁰

19. Steven Nekhaila: Current Libertarian National Committee Chair³⁷

20. Adam Kokesh: Activist and perennial candidate⁷⁰

21. Bob Barr: 2008 Presidential Nominee⁷⁰ ⁴²

22. Mike ter Maat: 2024 Vice-Presidential Nominee²⁵ ³³

Green Party:

23. Ralph Nader: 1996 and 2000 Presidential Nominee² ⁷²

24. Ajamu Baraka: 2016 Vice-Presidential Nominee² ⁷²

25. David Cobb: 2004 Presidential Nominee² ⁷²

26. Cynthia McKinney: 2008 Presidential Nominee² ⁷²

27. Margaret Elisabeth: Current Green Party Co-Chair⁷³

28. Craig Cayetano: Current Green Party Co-Chair⁴⁷ ⁷³

Constitution Party:

29. Darrell Castle: 2016 Presidential Nominee⁷¹ ⁷⁴

30. Don Blankenship: 2020 Presidential Nominee⁷⁴

31. Randall Terry: 2024 Presidential Nominee⁷⁴

32. Justin Magill: Current Constitution Party Chair⁷⁴ ⁷⁵

33. Virgil Goode: 2012 Presidential Nominee⁷⁴

34. Chuck Baldwin: 2008 Presidential Nominee⁷⁴

Working Families Party:

35. Maurice Mitchell: National Director⁷⁶ ⁷⁷

36. Kendra Brooks: Philadelphia City Council Member⁷⁶ ⁷⁸

37. Andrea Serrano: National Committee Co-Chair⁷⁸ ⁷⁹

38. Jacob Feinspan: National Committee Co-Chair⁷⁸ ⁷⁹

American Solidarity Party:

39. Peter Sonski: 2024 Presidential Nominee⁸⁰

40. Brian T. Carroll: 2020 Presidential Nominee⁸⁰ ⁸¹

B. Other Minor Party and Single-Issue Candidates (Candidates 41-60)

This group includes likely standard-bearers from smaller national parties that regularly participate in presidential elections.

  1. Gloria La Riva (Party for Socialism and Liberation): Perennial candidate for the PSL⁵⁰ ⁶⁰
  2. Alyson Kennedy (Socialist Workers Party): Perennial candidate for the SWP⁶⁰ ⁸¹
  3. The Prohibition Party Nominee: The party has nominated a candidate in every election since 1872⁴⁶ ⁶⁰
  4. The Legal Marijuana Now Party Nominee: A candidate representing the cannabis legalization movement⁵⁰ ⁴⁶
  5. Jolly Mitch (US Pirate Party): Current “Captain” of the US Pirate Party⁸²
  6. Ethan Osborne (US Pirate Party): 2022 Congressional candidate who received the most votes of any Pirate candidate in US history⁸²
  7. Bill Hammons (Unity Party): Perennial candidate for the Unity Party of America⁸¹
  8. Rocky De La Fuente (Alliance/Reform Party): Perennial candidate who has run under multiple party banners⁶⁰ ⁸¹
  9. Vermin Supreme (Libertarian/Independent): Satirical performance artist and perennial candidate³⁷ ⁶⁰
  10. Bernie Sanders (Independent): While a Democratic caucus member, Sanders is technically an independent Senator and could mount a final run outside the party structure if he disapproves of the nominee⁴⁶ ⁶⁰ ⁴⁸
  11. Marianne Williamson (Independent): Former Democratic primary candidate who could launch an independent bid²⁵
  12. Stephen A. Smith (Independent): Sports media personality who has expressed interest in running⁵ ⁸³
  13. Donald Trump Jr. (Independent): Businessman and political advisor who could run if shut out of the GOP primary²⁵
  14. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent): 2024 candidate and current HHS Secretary; has stated he will not run in 2028 but remains a prominent independent figure¹⁷ ¹¹¹
  15. Steve Bannon (Independent): Political strategist and media executive who could mount a populist-nationalist run⁵ ²⁵ ¹¹²
  16. Alex Jones (Independent): Media personality and conspiracy theorist.
  17. Jesse Ventura (Independent/Green): Former Governor of Minnesota and perennial speculative candidate⁸¹
  18. Angus King (Independent): Independent Senator from Maine who caucuses with Democrats⁴⁶
  19. Amar Patel (American Solidarity Party): 2020 Vice-Presidential Nominee⁸⁰ ¹¹³
  20. Mike Vick (American Solidarity Party): Current party Treasurer and activist¹¹³

C. The Long-Shot Filers (Candidates 61-100)

The following individuals have taken the official step of filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission for the 2028 presidential election as of October 2025. This list is notable for the high number of candidates filing as ‘Independent’ or ‘Unaffiliated,’ reflecting a broader trend of dissatisfaction with established party labels. While they currently lack the name recognition, funding, or organizational capacity for a viable national campaign, their declared intent makes them likely candidates in terms of their stated intention to run, though their viability remains a significant challenge.²⁵ ¹¹⁵

Candidate NameParty Affiliation (as filed)
61. Aaron AvourisIndependent
62. A.C. ToulmeOne Earth Party
63. Adam AlwaleedIndependent
64. Alexander WachaIndependent
65. Alphonza MabryAmerican Independent Conservative Party
66. Amanda ThompsonAmerican Independent Party
67. Andre McKoyLibertarian Party
68. Andre Ramon McNeilUnaffiliated
69. Andrew DennisIndependent
70. Andrew GiustoUnited Party
71. Andrew Heartdoc ChungIndependent
72. Angela DwyerIndependent
73. Angela GlassIndependent
74. Angela PerezIndependent
75. Angelo Yoshannah ScrignaIndependent
76. Ashleigh LottenvilleIndependent
77. Benjamin BeaumontIndependent
78. Benjamin CobbIndependent
79. Bradley Horges Jr.Independent
80. Brian MannixIndependent
81. Calvin StevensIndependent
82. Cherunda Lynn FoxIndependent
83. Chris FiorenzaUnaffiliated
84. Christopher M. PhillipsIndependent
85. Craig H. Johnson IIIndependent
86. Daniel DavenportLibertarian Party
87. Daniel JaouenIndependent
88. Daniel RampkeConstitution Party
89. David ClaymanIndependent
90. Douglas UnderwoodIndependent
91. Dwight SmithIndependent
92. Edward SearlsGreen Party
93. Esther DonaghyAmerican Independent Party
94. Ethan CriderIndependent
95. Harvey WizardIndependent
96. Hugo Valdez GarciaLibertarian Party
97. Indira AllfreeIndependent
98. James TreibertIndependent
99. James Winfield JonesIndependent
100. Janille CentunziIndependent

Conclusion: Key Indicators for the Road to 2028

The analysis of the potential 2028 third-party and independent field reveals a political landscape ripe with opportunity. However, it is also fraught with structural impediments. The sustained, high level of voter dissatisfaction with the two major parties has created a significant opening for an alternative candidate. Yet, the history of American elections demonstrates that this appetite for change is rarely sufficient to overcome the systemic advantages of the duopoly.

The most plausible scenarios for a disruptive 2028 campaign do not originate from the established third-party infrastructure. Parties like the Libertarian and Green Party will nominate candidates and secure a small but consistent share of the vote. However, their impact is likely to remain marginal. The greater potential for disruption lies with high-profile individuals. These figures can leverage personal brands, significant financial resources, and a clear, compelling mission to build a temporary but powerful coalition. A figure like Liz Cheney, with a focused anti-Trump message and a robust fundraising operation, or a celebrity like Dwayne Johnson, with universal name recognition, represents the most likely vector for a significant independent challenge.

As the 2028 cycle unfolds, the following five indicators will be critical to monitor in assessing the evolving viability of a third-party or independent challenge:

  1. Ballot Access Progress: The success or failure of organizations like the Forward Party to meet their stated goal of 50-state ballot access by 2025 will be a primary indicator of organizational capacity. Critical deadlines in populous, difficult-to-access states such as Texas, Florida, and California throughout 2026 and 2027 will serve as key benchmarks.
  2. Major Independent PAC Fundraising: The quarterly fundraising reports from political action committees like Liz Cheney’s “Our Great Task” will provide the clearest metric of donor enthusiasm and financial viability for a high-level independent run. Consistent, multi-million-dollar fundraising quarters would signal a serious and sustainable effort.
  3. Strategic Posture of Centrist Organizations: The actions of groups like No Labels will be crucial. After the failure of their 2024 effort, their ability to regroup, secure funding, and, most importantly, attract a credible, nationally recognized candidate like Joe Manchin will determine whether a well-funded centrist ticket materializes.
  4. The 2026 Midterm Election Results: The performance of independent and third-party candidates in gubernatorial and Senate races will provide tangible evidence of whether voter dissatisfaction is translating into actual votes. A surprise victory or even a strong showing by an independent in a key state could create significant momentum for a 2028 presidential bid.
  5. The Composition of Major Party Primary Fields: Ultimately, the nature of the Democratic and Republican nominees will define the political space available for an alternative. A presidential matchup featuring two candidates perceived as being on the ideological fringes would create the largest possible opening for a centrist. Conversely, if one or both parties nominate a candidate with broad appeal, the space for a third option will contract significantly. The conclusion of the primary season in mid-2028 will be the final and most important determinant of the third-party landscape.

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