Hey Rep. Issa, I’ll Take That Bet: Here Are the Democrats Who Will Support Law Enforcement.

Rep. Issa, regarding your “Over/Under on how many Democrats will support law enforcement,” I’ll happily take the over. You might be guessing not many, but I’m betting on a flicker of common sense from a handful who understand that “condemning violence against law enforcement” should be the easiest bipartisan win of the century.

My guesstimate? You’ll get about 10 Democrats to vote YES on your resolution.

Here’s the scouting report on the Democrats most likely to break ranks and join you, and why:

  • Rep. Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05): As the co-chair of both the Problem Solvers Caucus and the Law Enforcement Caucus, this vote is squarely in his wheelhouse. He’s practically required to support it.
  • Rep. Jared Moskowitz (FL-23): He’s already working with Republicans on the bill to give bunker-buster bombs to Israel. Condemning attacks on federal agents is a much smaller leap.
  • Rep. Juan Vargas (CA-52): Another co-sponsor of that “Bunker Buster Act.” He’s shown he’s willing to join Republicans on security issues.
  • Rep. Tom Suozzi (NY-03): Co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus and another “Bunker Buster” supporter. He’s a prime candidate to join you.
  • Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28): A Blue Dog Democrat from a border district who has been openly critical of the administration’s immigration strategy. This is an easy “yes” for him.
  • Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03): A Blue Dog in a swing district. A “law and order” vote like this is smart politics for her back home.
  • Rep. Jared Golden (ME-02): This Blue Dog co-chair represents a district that Trump won and is famous for his independent streak. He’s a likely yes.
  • Rep. Don Davis (NC-01): He’s in a tough reelection fight where immigration is a hot topic. Supporting this resolution helps him look moderate and tough on crime.
  • Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34): Another Blue Dog from a South Texas district that’s trending Republican. He’ll vote to support law enforcement to appeal to his shifting constituency.
  • Rep. Mary Peltola (AK-AL): A Blue Dog from a Republican-leaning state. She has every reason to vote for a common-sense measure like this to secure her vulnerable seat.

So, while you might not get a standing ovation from the whole Democratic side, you can probably set the over/under at 9.5 and confidently take the over. That would be about 4.7% of the Democratic caucus joining you.

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