It is possible that a data visualization similar to the one proposed below, or one that addresses these specific points, has already been produced by Judicial Watch or other analysts. If so, my apologies for any redundancy. The intent of this article is to contribute constructively to the public understanding of voter registration data by suggesting a clear and informative method of visual presentation.
Judicial Watch’s 2020 report identified 353 U.S. counties where their analysis indicated that total registered voters exceeded the estimated citizen voting-age population. To foster a more comprehensive understanding of these findings and the scale of the reported discrepancies, a detailed visual representation of this data would be highly beneficial for public discussion and analysis.
A Data Visualization Request:
Given the substantial number of counties involved, a scatter plot could offer the most effective way to visualize potential registration anomalies and their distribution. We propose that Judicial Watch consider producing and sharing a scatter plot with the following specifications:
Define Key Terms: For clarity, the visualization should be based on the American Community Survey (ACS), which is an ongoing survey by the U.S. Census Bureau providing annual data about the U.S. population, and its Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) estimates, which refer to the number of citizens aged 18 and over.
Scatter Plot Axes:
The X-axis should represent the ACS Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) estimate for each of the counties cited in your report. To account for statistical variance, using the upper bound of the ACS CVAP estimate (the estimate plus its margin of error) for the X-axis would provide a conservative baseline.
The Y-axis should represent the Total Registered Voters as listed in your report for each corresponding county.
Reference Line: Including a diagonal Y=X reference line (where Total Registered Voters would equal the ACS CVAP estimate) would serve as a clear visual benchmark. Points plotted above this line would represent counties where reported registrations exceed the CVAP estimate.
Color-Coding by State: To further enhance the analytical value, color-coding the data points (each representing a county) by state would be insightful. This would help to visually identify if the reported registration surpluses are geographically concentrated or more dispersed across different states, potentially highlighting any state-specific patterns or systemic issues.
Benefits of Such a Visualization: Presenting the data in this scatter plot format would provide a clearer, more immediate picture of the reported discrepancies across all cited counties. It would allow observers to visually assess the magnitude and distribution of these instances, identify potential outliers, and better understand the relationship between registered voters and population estimates, all while considering the inherent statistical nature of the ACS data and potential state-level variations. This approach could facilitate a more nuanced and data-driven public discussion on the important topic of voter roll accuracy.
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