The following is basically a laundry list of things that personally came to my mind about what might be causing those radar screen flickers or glitches at Newark. It’s just a collection of thoughts, nothing more, nothing less.

If this list seems pretty long or touches on a lot of different ideas, some of which might seem a bit out there, it’s just me spit-balling possibilities as a layperson. I’m no pro, so this definitely isn’t some exhaustive or official investigation plan – just my own brainstorming on what could be going on, because even a flicker could be something to look into.

I. System Internals, Timing, Cosmic Rays, High-Energy Particles, Environmental Factors & Interference (Highest Priority):

1. Internal Network Integrity (System Level – Top Priority): Diagnostic: Before external factors, scrutinize the health of the internal data networks within the radar system itself (from sensor acquisition through processing to display generation). Analyze the performance and error logs of internal network switches, routers, data buses, and fiber optic links. Look for packet loss, high latency, Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC) errors, or failing network hardware within the radar system’s architecture. A failure here can manifest as a complete loss of data to displays.
2. Precision Timing Source Issues (e.g., GPS Vulnerability – Top Priority): Diagnostic: Many advanced radar systems depend critically on highly accurate and stable timing signals (often derived from GPS or dedicated stratum-level timing systems) for data synchronization, signal processing, phased array beamforming, and accurate target tracking. Investigate the integrity, stability, and logs of all external and internal timing sources. Assess for potential localized GPS interference (jamming, spoofing – even unintentional industrial RF noise) that could disrupt the radar’s ability to achieve or maintain a proper time lock or introduce timing jitter.
3. Cosmic Rays and High-Energy Particle Impact (Emphasized): Primary Investigation Line: Prioritize investigating the potential for cosmic rays or other high-energy particles to cause single-event upsets (SEUs) in critical microelectronic components. Vulnerability Assessment: Evaluate the specific susceptibility of the radar system’s electronics. Tower Redesign Concept (Mitigation Strategy): Actively explore relocating primary display processing and other sensitive electronics to a heavily shielded, bunkered basement location. Personnel Equipment in Tower: Consider if tower personnel could operate using only devices with smaller electronic cross-sections (e.g., hardened phones/tablets) for critical data, with main displays in the bunkered facility.
4. Intensive Log Analysis (Emphasized): Collect, aggregate, and meticulously analyze logs from all sources: OS, radar application, hardware management, network devices, security systems, and interconnected infrastructure. Look for temporal correlations and error patterns.
5. Recent Changes & New Environmental/Operational Factors (Emphasized): Software/Configuration Changes: Thoroughly investigate software updates, patches, or configuration modifications made shortly before problems started. Air Traffic & Operational Shifts: Investigate if significant changes in air traffic (volume, types like military helicopters, patterns post-Reagan National 2025 incident) could be an unexpected trigger.
6. Offline, Isolated, Bunkered Competing System (Emphasized): Implement an independent, air-gapped duplicate of the radar processing system in a bunkered facility (SCIF-level security, Faraday cage).
7. Comprehensive Spectrum Analysis (Emphasized): Deploy spectrum analyzers extensively (antenna, equipment rooms, tower, perimeter). Establish RF baselines and hunt for anomalous signals, using directional antennas to triangulate sources.
8. EMI Shielding Effectiveness & Advanced Threats (Emphasized): Rigorously evaluate current EMI shielding. Acknowledge cosmic ray penetration potential, reinforcing the bunkering strategy. Consider vibrations exacerbating loose connections.
9. Metamaterials Investigation (Emphasized): Investigate if new, large-scale nearby construction involves metamaterials with unusual electromagnetic properties.
10. Expanded Potential Interference Sources (Emphasized): Other airport systems (e.g., ground radar, weather radar, communication arrays). Nearby civilian and military high-power transmitters (broadcast towers, cellular base stations, particularly 5G). Spy Balloons / High-Altitude Platforms: Unidentified or unauthorized balloons or other high-altitude platforms could carry electronic payloads capable of causing interference or conducting surveillance that might indirectly affect radar operations. These could be used for intentional electronic attack. Satellites: While direct interference from operational satellites to ground-based primary radar is less common for sustained outages (compared to, say, GPS interference by other sources), consider the possibility of misdirected ground station uplinks, reflections, or non-standard satellite operations. In a deliberate scenario, satellites could theoretically be used as a platform for directed energy or interference. Passing Vehicles: Heavy vans, trucks, or other vehicles potentially equipped with powerful (and possibly illicit) RF transmission equipment. Boats and Submarines: If geographically relevant to Newark (e.g., nearby ports or waterways), consider powerful radar or communication systems from marine vessels as potential sources. Drones: Both civilian and unauthorized drones, which could carry RF payloads designed for communication, surveillance, or interference/electronic attack. Acoustic/Infrasound Impact: Consider if persistent low-frequency noise or vibrations (from heavy machinery, construction, airport ground equipment) could affect sensitive electronics (crystal oscillators, connector fretting). Deploy specialized sensors if needed. Animals & Planted Devices: Animals carrying devices (e.g., dogs with backpacks). Planted devices (covert electronics in bushes, fixtures). Hotels, high-rises, and industrial facilities (aggregate electronic emissions). Intentional Beaming/Electronic Attack: This general category covers the deliberate direction of electromagnetic energy (jamming, disruption, spoofing) at the airport’s radar systems, potentially utilizing any of the above platforms (drones, balloons, ground-based emitters, etc.) or dedicated directional energy systems.
11. Solar Activity / Geomagnetic Storms (Minor Check): Briefly cross-reference outage times with significant solar flares or geomagnetic storm activity, which can induce currents and affect electronics. Check space weather archives.

II. On-Site Diagnostics – Physical Layer:

1. Grounding and Bonding Integrity: Diagnostic: Conduct a comprehensive audit of the entire electrical grounding and bonding infrastructure for the radar system, equipment racks, and associated facilities. Degraded or improper grounding can significantly increase susceptibility to EMI, introduce noise, and lead to unstable operation. This can be a slowly developing issue.
2. Power Supply Unit (PSU) Investigation: Aggressive Stress Testing (If Indicated): If other findings point to power, stress test a suspect or spare PSU under simulated maximum load. Indirect Health Assessment (Linux Utilities/AI): Use Linux utilities to monitor power rails/temps if direct inspection is hard. Consider AI for performance data analysis. Power Quality Analysis: Analyze incoming AC power for surges, sags, noise.
3. Motherboard and Component Integrity: Indirect Inspection First: Use system logs/diagnostics for hardware errors. AI for pattern analysis. Temperature Monitoring: Comprehensive temperature monitoring (CPUs, GPUs, chipsets, racks). Hold Off on Reseating (Initial Phase): Avoid unless indicated by diagnostics.
4. Overall Equipment Cooling System: Diagnostic: Verify optimal functioning of primary and redundant HVAC/cooling systems for equipment rooms and bunkers. Check for localized hotspots due to airflow obstructions or cooling system component failures that might affect overall system stability even if individual component sensors read normal.
5. Cabling and Connections: Integrity Checks & Vendor Provenance: Meticulously check data/power cables for damage, secure connections, shielding. Trace vendors/batches. Antenna Connections, Cleanliness & Specific Element Failure/Degradation: Inspect antenna array connections and transmission lines. Ensure antenna surfaces are clean (no “bird poop,” dust, ice) and unobstructed. For Phased Arrays: Investigate if built-in test equipment (BITE) or specialized diagnostics can identify failing or degraded individual transmit/receive (T/R) modules or antenna elements. A significant number of such partial failures could degrade overall performance to the point of system malfunction.
6. Material Science – Slow Degradation (Low Priority): Diagnostic: If other avenues are exhausted, consider the possibility of subtle, long-term material breakdown: corrosion on internal connectors, backplanes, or component leads (especially in challenging environments); degradation of dielectric materials in older cables or components due to temperature cycling or chemical exposure. This may require close visual inspection (magnification) or specialized material tests.

III. Security, Human Factors & Supply Chain:

1. Sabotage and Insider Considerations: Review physical/digital access logs. Maintain awareness of deliberate sabotage possibilities.
2. Patch Management & Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Focus on whether a recently deployed patch/software update is the root cause (bug or “SolarWinds-style” compromise). Scrutinize source, integrity, and behavior of recent software changes.

IV. Data Collection and Analysis (Reinforced):

1. Comprehensive Logging (Expanded Sources): Meticulous, synchronized logging: radar system, network devices, power, HVAC, anonymized aircraft data/reports.
2. Environmental Data Correlation: Correlate outages with weather, power grid events, industrial activities.
3. Time Synchronization (Absolute Priority): Ensure precise time-sync (e.g., NTP) across all systems for accurate event correlation.

V. Process and Collaboration (Expanded):

1. Meticulous Documentation: Detailed records of all steps, tests, results, changes.
2. Broad Expert Collaboration: Radar engineers, power specialists, RF engineers, network engineers. Airlines: Gather observations/data. Ethical hackers / ICS cybersecurity firms. Military: Electronic warfare/radar expertise.
3. Manufacturer Involvement: Keep radar/subsystem manufacturers closely involved.
4. Interviews (Expanded Scope & Human Factors): Pilots, ATCOs on duty during incidents. Potentially passengers if widespread electronic phenomena were noted. Human Factors – Tribal Knowledge and Procedural Drift: Interview long-serving current and recently retired technical staff about any undocumented operational or maintenance “tricks,” workarounds, or specific system sensitivities that were historically managed through experience but might have been lost or are no longer applied. This “tribal knowledge” can be critical for understanding subtle system behaviors. Past Witnesses: Systematically re-interview all who reported or experienced outages to gather nuanced details and look for commonalities.