Preliminary Factual and Analytical Report: Accident Involving UPS Airlines Flight 2976, McDonnell Douglas MD-11F (N259UP)

Date of Report: November 4, 2025

I. Executive Summary: The Accident of UPS Flight 2976

This report provides a preliminary factual analysis of a major aviation accident. The incident involved a United Parcel Service (UPS) Airlines cargo aircraft on November 4, 2025.¹ The flight was identified as UPS Flight 2976 (callsign 5X2976). It originated from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport (SDF).¹

The accident occurred at approximately 5:20 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST). Responders identified the crash site at or near the intersection of Fern Valley Road and Grade Lane in Louisville, Kentucky.³ This area is described as being at the “southern edge” of the airport complex.

Authorities confirmed the aircraft was a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F. This is a three-engine wide-body freighter with the registration N259UP.¹

Flight tracking data indicates the aircraft was operating as Flight 2976. This was a long-haul route from Louisville (SDF) to Honolulu, Hawaii (HNL).¹ The accident occurred “shortly after takeoff” during the initial climb phase.¹

First responders and the Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) ³ described the crash site as an “active scene with fire and debris”.³ A multi-agency response is underway.³

Authorities took significant public safety measures in response:

• The LMPD issued an immediate shelter-in-place order for a five-mile radius surrounding the airport.³
• The airport halted all operations. The airfield is confirmed closed to all arriving and departing flights.³

Official reports indicate three crew members were onboard. Authorities had previously confirmed “injuries” ³, but the specific number of crew has now been clarified.

The flight’s destination and phase of flight point to a high-risk operational scenario. A trans-pacific flight to Honolulu requires a massive fuel load.¹ This, combined with a heavy cargo manifest, means the aircraft was almost certainly at or near its Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW).

An accident during the initial climb in this heavy configuration is one of the most critical emergencies a flight crew can face. Any failure, whether mechanical, structural, or cargo-related, provides minimal altitude and performance margin to manage the crisis.

This context will place an immediate investigative focus on three areas:

• The aircraft’s takeoff performance
• Engine status
• Weight and balance

Table 1: Preliminary Accident Data Summary (UPS 2976)

Parameter	Detail	Source(s)
Date of Incident	November 4, 2025	[3, 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 16, 8, 18, 19, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27]
Time of Incident	Approx. 5:20 PM EST
Operator	UPS Airlines	[1, 2, 17, 20]
Flight Number	UPS2976 (5X2976)	1
Aircraft Type	McDonnell Douglas MD-11F	1
Registration	N259UP	1
Flight Route	Louisville (SDF) to Honolulu (HNL)	1
Accident Location	Fern Valley Road & Grade Lane, Louisville, KY	3
Phase of Flight	Initial Climb (Shortly after takeoff)	1
Official Status	“Injuries reported”; “Active scene with fire and debris”	3
Key Agency Actions	5-mile shelter-in-place order; SDF airfield closed	[3, 1, 4, 5, 6, 18, 19, 9, 20, 10, 12, 14, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25]

II. Profile: Aircraft N259UP and the MD-11F Fleet

This section details the specific aircraft involved in the accident, its operational history, and the status of the wider UPS MD-11F fleet.

Aircraft N259UP: Identity and History

• Type / Registration: McDonnell Douglas MD-11F, N259UP (GE CF6-80C2D1F engines). (FlightAware)
• ICAO Hex Code: A27ABD. (FlightAware)
• Build and Lineage: Manufacturer Serial Number (MSN) 48417, Line 467. Records show the aircraft was built in 1991 and delivered new to Thai Airways as HS-TME. It was transferred to UPS in mid-2006 and has been in service as a freighter since. (airfleets.net) ²⁸

N259UP: Recent Operational History

• Accident Flight (Nov. 4, 2025): The aircraft was operating as UPS Flight 2976 from Louisville (SDF) to Honolulu (HNL). (AJC) ¹
• Activity on Day of Accident: The aircraft was on the ground at the UPS Worldport hub for approximately eight hours before its departure. It had arrived at 9:04 AM EST on November 4 from Baltimore/Washington International (BWI), operating as UPS Flight 2215.²⁹
• Recent Route Pattern (Late Oct. 2025): The SDF to HNL route was a documented run for this airframe (e.g., Oct. 22, 2025). (FlightAware) The tail was also active on frequent domestic network turns in late October. This included routes connecting SDF with:
  • EWR (multiple 10/23-10/28)
  • PDX (10/25-10/26)
  • TPA (10/26-10/27) ³⁰
  • DFW (10/24-10/25) ²⁹
  • A sequence from SDF to BFI, KONT, PDX, and back (10/28-10/31) ²⁹
  • An OAK to ONT flight (10/31). (FlightAware) ²⁹

UPS MD-11F Fleet Context

• Fleet Composition: UPS operates an active fleet of approximately 28 MD-11Fs. (Flightradar24) ¹⁵ The overall UPS fleet average age is around 22 years. (PlaneSpotters)
• Retirement Cadence: UPS began phasing out its MD-11Fs in 2023. This process has continued through 2024-2025. Recent filings indicate additional MD-11s were retired in 2025, with more retirements possible this year. (FreightWaves)

Economics of MD-11F Retirement

• Fuel and Emissions: The primary replacement, the twin-engine Boeing 767-300F, is materially more fuel-efficient per trip than the tri-jet MD-11. This lowers trip costs and improves flexibility on domestic routes. (Aviation Week)
• Maintenance and Age: As early-1990s vintage airframes, the MD-11s carry a higher maintenance burden for heavy checks and aging systems compared to younger 767s. UPS has explicitly tied the MD-11 retirements to fleet modernization. (United Parcel Service, Inc.)
• Commonality: A fleet centered on 757/767s allows for commonality in cockpit training and parts. This simplifies operations compared to managing a small, aging tri-jet subfleet. (Wikipedia)

III. Reconstruction: The Fern Valley Road Accident

This section synthesizes available official and media reports to establish a preliminary timeline of the accident and its immediate, localized consequences.

Initial Event Timeline

• At approximately 5:10 PM EST, UPS Flight 2976 departed Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport.¹
• The crash occurred approximately 10 minutes later, at 5:20 PM EST, ‘shortly after takeoff’.
• Between 5:24 PM and 5:27 PM EST, the LMPD issued its first public alerts via social media (X/Twitter). These alerts confirmed it was “responding to reports of a plane crash”.³
• By 6:00 PM EST, multiple news outlets were reporting on the crash, citing the LMPD’s confirmation. This included local (WHAS11) ³, national (Associated Press, Washington Post, CBS News) ⁴, and international (The Guardian, Daily Star) ⁵ sources.

Accident Scene Analysis

All official and media reports are consistent in their description of the crash site. The LMPD termed it an “active scene with fire and debris”.³

This is strongly corroborated by visual evidence from social media and television station video. This footage shows a “large plume of black smoke” and a “large trail of flames” emanating from the crash site.³

Agencies consistently identify the location as the intersection of Fern Valley Road and Grade Lane.³ This area is adjacent to a Ford assembly plant and a UPS aircraft center.⁵

Community Impact and Emergency Response

Authorities responded immediately and severely, indicating a significant perceived threat.

• Shelter-in-Place: LMPD issued an immediate shelter-in-place order for “all locations within 5 miles of the airport”.³
• Infrastructure Closure: The accident caused a total shutdown of the area.
  • Air: Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport (SDF) confirmed its airfield was “closed to arriving and departing flights”.³
  • Ground: Grade Lane was “closed indefinitely” between Stooges and Crittenden.³
• Public Warning: The LMPD and other agencies strongly advised the public to “stay away” from the active scene.³

Among these responses, the issuance of a five-mile shelter-in-place order is highly unusual for an aircraft accident.³

While any crash scene is hazardous, this type of wide-area, airborne-threat warning is not standard. It strongly indicates a Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) threat.

This threat could stem from two sources:

1. The massive, toxic smoke plume from the aircraft’s large fuel load.
2. The combustion of its unknown cargo.

Cargo aircraft often transport industrial chemicals, large quantities of lithium-ion batteries, or other materials that can produce uniquely toxic smoke. This official response elevates the cargo manifest to a document of utmost importance for both public safety and the accident investigation.

IV. Information Verification and Official Response Status

In any breaking news event of this magnitude, the information environment itself must be analyzed.

Status of Official Agency Notifications (FAA/NTSB)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) confirmed the crash. They stated UPS Flight 2976, an MD-11, crashed shortly after takeoff from SDF around 5:15 p.m. local time. (AJC) ³²

As of this report, neither the NTSB nor UPS has released public disclosures about recent maintenance on N259UP. The NTSB will review these logs as part of its standard investigation. (Louisville Public Media) ³²

Status of Corporate Communications (UPS)

UPS officially acknowledged an incident involving one of its aircraft. The company directed all media inquiries to the UPS newsroom for future updates (via an @UPSAirlines post). (Louisville Public Media)

As noted, the company has not released specific maintenance details for N259UP.³⁵

Identification of Disinformation

The current information landscape is compromised by some false data.

• Disinformation: At least one source has been identified claiming the event was “not a plane crash but it ras something else, a strange object”.³⁶ This is categorized as clear disinformation. It is directly contradicted by the official reports from LMPD ³ and the corroborating reports from all major news agencies.¹

Definitive technical details, such as the cargo contents and the final cockpit communications, are not yet in the public domain.

V. Context and Preliminary Investigative Pathways

This concluding section provides an expert assessment of the accident’s context. It also outlines the probable investigative priorities for the NTSB. This is an outline of methodology, not a speculation of cause.

The MD-11F in Modern Cargo Operations

The McDonnell Douglas MD-11F is a critical, high-capacity asset for the UPS Airlines fleet.² Its performance envelope as a legacy tri-jet is well-understood.

The involved aircraft, N259UP, is a c. 1991 airframe.²⁸ The NTSB investigation will heavily scrutinize the complete maintenance and service records for this aircraft. This focus will include the three engines (General Electric CF6 or Pratt & Whitney PW4000 series) and the integrity of the flight control systems.

The Criticality of the Worldport Hub

This accident occurred at Worldport, the global primary hub for UPS Airlines.² This single facility is the heart of the company’s global logistics network. It handles over 416,000 packages per hour and serves over 200 countries.²

The closure of the SDF airfield represents a catastrophic failure at the network’s central node.³ The incident will trigger immediate, cascading delays across the entire global supply chain. This elevates the event from a local aviation accident to a major economic and logistical disruption.

Outlining Preliminary Investigative Pathways

Based on the confirmed data, the NTSB “Go-Team” will be organized into specialized groups. Their immediate priorities will almost certainly be:

1. Cargo and Hazardous Materials: This will be the highest and most urgent priority. The 5-mile shelter-in-place order ³ is an extraordinary signal that the cargo itself may be a key factor. The team will secure the cargo manifest immediately to identify any declared or undeclared hazardous materials that could have caused an in-flight fire, explosion, or toxic event.
2. Powerplants (Engines): An accident on takeoff while at or near MTOW [inferred] makes engine failure a primary investigative pathway. The debris field ³ will be meticulously searched for engine components to look for evidence of an uncontained failure or other malfunction.
3. Human Factors & Operations: The recovery of the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) and Flight Data Recorder (FDR) will be paramount. This group will also secure the flight crew’s training records (especially for the MD-11F), flight hours, and duty schedules to assess for any fatigue or proficiency-related factors.
4. Airframe and Systems: This group will analyze the 8-hour maintenance and servicing window the aircraft underwent at Worldport.¹ They will also audit the complete service history of the 1991-build airframe ²⁸, looking for any evidence of structural failure or a malfunction in the flight control systems (e.g., hydraulics, flaps/slats) during the critical climb-out phase.
5. Weight and Balance: Given the long-haul route to Honolulu ¹ and the complex cargo load, the official load manifest and weight/balance calculations will be audited. An in-flight cargo shift due to improper securing can lead to a rapid and catastrophic loss of aircraft control, a known risk in cargo operations.

Recommendations for Stakeholders

Based on the preliminary analysis, the following actions are recommended for relevant parties:

• For Other Cargo Operators (MD-1F Fleet): While no cause is determined, a prudent, non-public review of maintenance directives, cargo loading procedures (especially for hazardous materials), and crew training protocols for high-weight takeoffs on the MD-11F fleet would be a standard safety-first reaction.

Future Outlook

Investigations of this magnitude are complex and meticulous. They often take 12 to 24 months to reach a final conclusion and determine a probable cause.

As the NTSB gathers evidence, it may issue urgent safety recommendations. This occurs if it identifies critical safety issues that must be addressed before the final report is complete.

During this period, it is critical to rely on official information from the NTSB. Stakeholders should caution against speculation, which the initial information vacuum can fuel.

Works Cited

1. BNO News, “A UPS cargo plane crashed shortly after takeoff from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport…”, Nov 4, 2025.
2. BNO News, “The aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F registered as N259UP, was operating as Flight UPS2976…”, Nov 4, 2025.
3. The Washington Post, “Police are responding to reports of a plane crash near Louisville International Airport…”, Nov 4, 2025.
4. WHAS11, “LIVE: Shelter-in-place issued after plane crash reported near Louisville airport”, Nov 4, 2025.
5. WHAS11, “LMPD: Crews respond to reported plane crash near Louisville airport”, Nov 4, 2025.
6. National Transportation Safety Board, Aircraft Incident Report NTSB/AIR-18/01, Sep 25, 2018 (regarding a separate incident).
7. Reddit r/aviation, “UPS2976_crash_megathread”, Nov 4, 2025.
8. FlightAware, “N259UP flight schedule… Tue 04-Nov-2025 09:04AM EST”, Nov 4, 2025.
9. Independent Pilots Association (IPA), “IPAExhibitVolumeI.pdf”, (document listing N259UP, MSN 48417, 1991).
10. Flightradar24, “FLIGHTS HISTORY… N259UP 30 Oct 2025”, Nov 4, 2025.
11. Flightradar24, “FLIGHTS HISTORY, N259UP 29 Oct 2025”, Nov 4, 2025.
12. Flightradar24, “UPS, (5X/UPS) – Track UPS flights and view detailed fleet information”, Nov 4, 2025.
13. BNONews, “Plane crashes near Louisville, Kentucky airport; injuries reported”, Nov 4, 2025.
14. The Associated Press (via ourmidland.com), “Authorities responding to reports of a plane crash in Kentucky”, Nov 4, 2025.
15. CBS News, “Injuries have been reported after a UPS plane crashed near the Louisville International Airport…”, Nov 4, 2025.
16. The Guardian, “A plane has crashed near Louisville international airport in Kentucky…”, Nov 4, 2025.
17. The Daily Star, “Horror plane crash with plumes of smoke seen for miles…”, Nov 4, 2025.
18. Federal Aviation Administration, “FAA Newsroom – Statements on Accidents/Incidents”, Oct 31, 2025.
19. Federal Aviation Administration, “FAA: Statements on Accidents/Incidents”, Oct 31, 2025.
20. UPS Newsroom, “UPS Releases 3Q 2025 Earnings”, Nov 4, 2025.
21. Scribd, “Untitled” (document mentioning “not a plane crash but it ras something else…”), (date unspecified).
22. National Transportation Safety Board, “Accident Synopses – by month”, Nov 2025.
23. National Transportation Safety Board, “Aviation Accident Database”, (accessed Nov 4, 2025).
24. Wikipedia, “UPS Airlines”, (accessed Nov 4, 2025).
25. InvestingLive, “Plane crash near Louisville’s Muhammad Ali airport sparks fire…”, Nov 4, 2025.
26. Wikipedia, “McDonnell Douglas MD-11”, (accessed Nov 4, 2025).